Polysilicon Market Size to Reach USD 134.3 Billion by 2032 growing at 15.6% CAGR - Exclusive Report by Acumen Research and Consulting
The Polysilicon market, valued at USD 37.1 Billion in 2023, is projected to surpass USD 134.3 Billion by 2032, indicating a robust CAGR of 15.6%
Silicon, in its poly form, is the key component of the solar PV industry and is akin to coal in the industrial revolution. Polysilicon used in the production of solar modules is heated to create ingots which are then cut into wafers, turned into solar cells and modules. The China Silicon Industry Association has forecast polysilicon prices to rise by year-end, due to producers reducing production as a result of a decline in the sector. From mid-2022 to the present, the Chinese polysilicon prices have dropped by 85% due to manufacturing capacity growth that exceeded the market’s demand. The third largest polysilicon maker, DAQO NEW ENERGY CO., LTD. has reduced its production estimate for the year 2024 in the wake of deep losses in the first half of the year.
The industry has also become more concentrated with the top five manufactures accounting for 73% of the global production in 2020 compared to 60% in 2017 according to Bloomberg statistics. This concentration was due to exit of small players who could not match the economies of scale of large producers. China’s tariffs on imported polysilicon also served to strengthen its local suppliers who were already more affordable. The polysilicon manufacturing is highly centralized in China, which had accounted for 77% of the global production by 2020 and is located in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan due to cheaper electricity and availability of raw materials. Supply chain disruptions in Q3 2020 also affected the polysilicon price and the prices further rose in 2021 due to certain market limitations. Expecting high demand-solar installations are expected to rise at a 15% compounded annual rate over the next three years, as per BNEF-wafer companies increased their capacity by 45% in 2020.
Polysilicon Market Statistics
- The global polysilicon market generated USD 37.1 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a robust CAGR of over 15.6% from 2024 to 2032
- Asia-Pacific led the market with a revenue of USD 163.2 million in 2023
- The North America region is expected to experience strong growth with a projected CAGR of 16.4%
- Solar PV dominated the market, holding 76% of the market share in 2023
- A discernible trend in the polysilicon market is rapid expansion of solar PV capacity, particularly in China
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Polysilicon Market Dynamics
Rising Adoption of Solar Energy Fuels the Polysilicon Market Value
The general rise in interest of renewable energy is greatly boosting the uptake of solar energy, in a similar way to how the rise in the level of the sea raises a ship. This momentum has significantly benefited the polysilicon market as countries focus on renewable energy, and embrace solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. The leading solar countries such as China, United States and European countries are growing fast and this has led to increased demand of polysilicon which is a key input in development of solar cells. This trend is being further bolstered by government incentives, high renewable energy targets and the growing improvements in the technology used in solar panels; making polysilicon production even more important in supporting the new global solar capacity.
The latest statistics by IEA show that global solar power has crossed the 1,000 GW mark in terms of PV deployments, providing more than 200 million households with electricity and generating about 4.5% of the global electricity. This upward trend is underpinned by less expensive, friendly government policies, and 220 GW of new capacity in 2022, with China leading in installations. Just like a tide lifts boats to higher waters, the increasing pace of solar energy demand is raising the polysilicon market to the needed heights to match the burgeoning solar market.
Supply Chain Disruptions and Geopolitical Tensions for Polysilicon Availability Restricts the Polysilicon Market Share
Two key issues have arisen in the polysilicon market; supply chain disruptions and geopolitical issues are among the factors that affect the availability of polysilicon. The polysilicon supply chain is intricate and depends on essential manufacturing nodes, especially in such countries as China. The occurrence of events such as COVID-19 and different trade tensions has created some weaknesses in this supply chain and thus slow down production and distribution. The pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted the supply chains in the last couple of years, and the constantly rising demand escalated the price of materials and energy. The cost of solar PV-grade polysilicon, copper and steel all increased by approximately one-and-a-half times between the first half of 2020 and that of 2022. These increases resulted in the cost of PV modules rising by 25% and that of wind turbines outside China, by up to 20%. These disruptions can delay the delivery of polysilicon to manufacturers of solar cells and other semiconductors thus impacting the renewable energy and electronics industries. Therefore, the industry’s capacity to deliver on the increasing demand is at risk, which may slow down advancement in solar energy technology and usage.
Moreover, political risks, especially in the major producing countries, have also contributed to supply stringency in the polysilicon industry. Policies such as tariffs, trade restrictions, and regulatory changes can hinder the international trade making it difficult for the countries to source for polysilicon from dependable suppliers. Such tensions do not only affect the pricing but also result to risks that may hinder investment in polysilicon and associated technologies. When countries are operating within these geopolitical realities, the polysilicon market must find ways to ensure access to this critical material while also trying to expand sources and strengthen domestic production capacities in order to avoid the consequences of overreliance on external supplies.
Polysilicon Market Segmentation
The global market for polysilicon has been segmented into application, and region.
- Application is bifurcated into Solar PV (monocrystalline solar panel and multicrystalline solar panel) and electronics (semiconductor)
- The polysilicon market is geographically split into Europe, North America, Latin America, APAC, and the Middle East and Africa
Polysilicon Market Regional Outlook
The market of polysilicon has a rather unique regional distribution with Asia Pacific and specifically China being ahead in both production and consumption. China controls 77% of the global share of polysilicon production because of its vast production facilities and encouraging government policies on renewable energy. The low cost of labour and availability of raw materials coupled with the focus on development of solar power has placed the country as a market leader in polysilicon. The provinces of Xinjiang, Yunnan and Sichuan that have cheap electricity costs have also emerged as the manufacturing centers. Thus, the increase in the installation of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Asia-Pacific is likely to create significant demand for polysilicon, thus underlining the strategic position of the region in the supply chain.
On the other hand, North America is becoming a promising area in the consumption of polysilicon due to growing interest in renewable energy sources, as well as governmental support. The United States, for instance, is experiencing a rising trend in the use of solar energy hence the increased demand of polysilicon for solar cells production. The country wants to increase its energy self-sufficiency and decrease the import dependence, which leads to the construction of local polysilicon production plants. Due to increased focus on clean energy in North America, it is expected that this region will have the highest CAGR in the polysilicon market within the next few years. This shift shows a clear opportunity for local manufacturers to benefit from the increasing demand while at the same time promoting the sustainability agenda of the region.
Polysilicon Market Players
Polysilicon companies profiled in the report include DAQO NEW ENERGY CO., LTD., Hemlock Semiconductor Operations LLC and Hemlock Semiconductor, L.L.C., GCL-TECH, High-Purity Silicon America Corporation, Qatar Solar Technologies, OCI COMPANY Ltd., REC Silicon ASA, Tokuyama Corporation, Wacker Chemie AG, Tongwei Group Co., Ltd, and Xinte Energy Co., Ltd.
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